News

PCA forecasts more moderate cement consumption growth

Revised Estimate Sees Impacts from Weather, Lower Public Construction Budgets for 2017-2018

Sept. 28, 2017 – Skokie, Ill. – Annual cement consumption is expected to climb by 2.6 percent during 2017 and 2.8 percent in 2018, according to new projections by the Portland Cement Association (PCA). The updated forecast adjusts downward PCA projections released earlier this year.  Bad weather and lower anticipated budgets for the public construction sector are among the factors that have prompted the adoption of a more modest growth outlook.

“Once infrastructure and tax reform initiatives take hold and affect economic and construction activity, then we can expect growth in cement consumption to accelerate to higher levels,” said Ed Sullivan, PCA senior vice president and chief economist.

Sullivan noted the updated forecast assumes tax reform and a $250 billion national infrastructure program spearheaded by the Trump administration and Congress, but this now isn’t likely to begin until mid-2019.  The dual fiscal stimuli will accelerate GDP growth, construction spending, and cement consumption.  With unemployment expected to be even lower than today’s levels, these fiscal programs will add to inflationary pressures.

PCA also noted that rising inflation will necessitate a stronger Federal Reserve reaction and is expected to result in a rapid and perhaps larger-than-expected increase in interest rates.

“Construction is an interest sensitive sector and a slowdown and perhaps a decline in activity.is expected beginning in late 2021,” Sullivan noted.

Read more

PNBRC

Recent Posts

Green cement production is scaling up – and it could cut the carbon footprint of construction

Aside from water, concrete is the most-used material in the world, with about 14 billion…

3 weeks ago

New stormwater infrastructure is needed for Canadian cities

Flooding in Montréal, and other Canadian cities, is becoming a more frequent occurrence.

1 month ago

Ancient Rome had ways to counter the urban heat. What are history’s lessons for today

As intense heat breaks records around the world, a little-reported fact offers some hope for…

2 months ago

More cities are getting hit by multiple disasters, and that complicates everything from insurance to rebuilding

Climate change will bring new weather patterns that are beyond emergency managers’ current playbooks, which…

2 months ago

To cut the carbon that goes into buildings, we need radical change

New research shows while we can greatly reduce embodied carbon in Australia, it will require…

2 months ago

Building Resilience Coalition Achieves Major Gains in Promoting Designing For Resilience

The Building Resilience Coalition, a major sponsor of the Pacific Northwest Economic Region, has achieved…

3 months ago